Geoff Neal vs Michael Oliveira
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
16-8-0Record9-0-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
75"Reach78"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fortis MMATeamKO Squad MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1708
If they lose-16→ 1676
If they win+24→ 1719
If they lose-24→ 1671
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1743 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1510 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Geoff NealMichael Oliveira
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Michael Oliveira62%
Geoff Neal 38%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Michael Oliveira a 62% favorite over Geoff Neal in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1692 vs 1695), separated by just 3 points.
Geoff Neal enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Michael Oliveira enters on a 9-fight win streak.
Geoff Neal finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Michael Oliveira 89%.
Michael Oliveira carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.