Combat Edge Intelligence

Gilbert Melendez vs Luke Riley

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-8-0Record13-0-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'9"
73,0"Reach69"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Skrap PackTeamNext Generation MMA Liverpool

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Gilbert MelendezNow 1740
If they win+12→ 1752
If they lose-12→ 1728
Luke RileyNow 1739
If they win+16→ 1755
If they lose-16→ 1723

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1727 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1531 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.44
Sig. strikes / min
5.56
33%
Strike accuracy
57%
2.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.32
63%
Strike defense
65%
1.64
Takedown avg.
0
41%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
72%
Takedown defense
38%
0.20
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Gilbert MelendezLuke Riley
1650170017502017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

12 (55%)
KO/TKO
9 (69%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
10 (45%)
Decision
4 (31%)

Combat Edge model read

Luke Riley71%
Gilbert Melendez 29%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Luke Riley a 71% favorite over Gilbert Melendez in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gilbert Melendez's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1740 vs 1739), separated by just 1 points.

Gilbert Melendez enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Luke Riley enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Gilbert Melendez finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Luke Riley 69%.

Gilbert Melendez carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.