Combat Edge Intelligence

Gilbert Urbina vs Thiago Alves

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-4-0Record23-15-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'3"Height5'10"
75"Reach70,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
BMF RanchTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Gilbert UrbinaNow 1572
If they win+16→ 1588
If they lose-16→ 1556
Thiago AlvesNow 1572
If they win+12→ 1584
If they lose-12→ 1560

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1571 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.57
Sig. strikes / min
3.73
57%
Strike accuracy
42%
4.62
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.42
45%
Strike defense
63%
2.86
Takedown avg.
0.71
44%
Takedown accuracy
61%
0%
Takedown defense
63%
0.71
Submission avg.
0.30

Trajectory

Gilbert UrbinaThiago Alves
160020182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

2 (29%)
KO/TKO
13 (57%)
2 (29%)
Submission
1 (4%)
3 (43%)
Decision
9 (39%)

Combat Edge model read

Gilbert Urbina66%
Thiago Alves 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Gilbert Urbina a 66% favorite over Thiago Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1572 vs 1572), separated by just 0 points.

Gilbert Urbina enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Thiago Alves enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Gilbert Urbina finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Alves 61%.

Gilbert Urbina carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.