Combat Edge Intelligence

Gregory Rodrigues vs Nick Diaz

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-6-0Record26-10-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'3"Height6'1"
75"Reach76"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Gregory RodriguesNow 1765
If they win+12→ 1777
If they lose-12→ 1753
Nick DiazNow 1759
If they win+12→ 1771
If they lose-12→ 1747

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1701 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1731 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.53
Sig. strikes / min
5.71
52%
Strike accuracy
42%
4.78
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.84
51%
Strike defense
60%
1.90
Takedown avg.
1.28
16%
Takedown accuracy
33%
75%
Takedown defense
60%
0.38
Submission avg.
1

Trajectory

Gregory RodriguesNick Diaz
1700175020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

12 (63%)
KO/TKO
13 (50%)
3 (16%)
Submission
8 (31%)
4 (21%)
Decision
5 (19%)

Combat Edge model read

Gregory Rodrigues78%
Nick Diaz 22%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Gregory Rodrigues a 78% favorite over Nick Diaz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1765 vs 1759), separated by just 6 points.

Gregory Rodrigues enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Nick Diaz enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Gregory Rodrigues finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Nick Diaz 81%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.