Combat Edge Intelligence

Herbert Burns vs Niklas Backstrom

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-6-0Record11-4-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height6'0"
73"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamAllstars Training Center

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Herbert BurnsNow 1607
If they win+16→ 1623
If they lose-16→ 1591
Niklas BackstromNow 1606
If they win+16→ 1622
If they lose-16→ 1590

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1620 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1536 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.86
Sig. strikes / min
1.12
37%
Strike accuracy
42%
5.17
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.65
42%
Strike defense
40%
2.94
Takedown avg.
2.92
35%
Takedown accuracy
80%
67%
Takedown defense
73%
1.84
Submission avg.
2.19

Trajectory

Herbert BurnsNiklas Backstrom
1600165020232024

Win method breakdown

1 (9%)
KO/TKO
4 (36%)
8 (73%)
Submission
4 (36%)
2 (18%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Niklas Backstrom67%
Herbert Burns 33%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Niklas Backstrom a 67% favorite over Herbert Burns in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Herbert Burns's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1607 vs 1606), separated by just 1 points.

Herbert Burns enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Niklas Backstrom enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Herbert Burns finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Niklas Backstrom 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.