Herbert Burns vs Pablo Garza
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-6-0Record12-4-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height6'1"
73"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamAcademy of Combat Arts
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1623
If they lose-16→ 1591
If they win+16→ 1622
If they lose-16→ 1590
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1620 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1543 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Herbert BurnsPablo Garza
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Pablo Garza52%
Herbert Burns 48%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Pablo Garza a 52% favorite over Herbert Burns in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Herbert Burns's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1607 vs 1606), separated by just 1 points.
Herbert Burns enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Herbert Burns finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Pablo Garza 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.