Ion Cutelaba vs Rafael Cavalcante
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-12-1Record13-7-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'0"
75"Reach41,0"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Timoshkov Sport ClubTeamTeam Nogueira
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1653
If they lose-12→ 1629
If they win+16→ 1649
If they lose-16→ 1617
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1678 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1644 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ion CutelabaRafael Cavalcante
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ion Cutelaba66%
Rafael Cavalcante 34%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Ion Cutelaba a 66% favorite over Rafael Cavalcante in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1641 vs 1633), separated by just 8 points.
Ion Cutelaba finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Cavalcante 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.