Ismael Bonfim vs Yamato Nishikawa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-6-0Record21-5-6
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'7"
71"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Cerrado MMATeamNishikawa Dojo
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1697
If they lose-16→ 1665
If they win+12→ 1693
If they lose-12→ 1669
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1614 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1537 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ismael BonfimYamato Nishikawa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Yamato Nishikawa52%
Ismael Bonfim 48%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Yamato Nishikawa a 52% favorite over Ismael Bonfim in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ismael Bonfim's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1681 vs 1681), separated by just 0 points.
Ismael Bonfim enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Yamato Nishikawa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ismael Bonfim finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Yamato Nishikawa 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.