Combat Edge Intelligence

Israel Giron vs Michael Johnson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-5-0Record24-20-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'10"
TBDReach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Renzo Gracie MexicoTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Israel GironNow 1613
If they win+16→ 1629
If they lose-16→ 1597
Michael JohnsonNow 1613
If they win+12→ 1625
If they lose-12→ 1601

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1519 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1666 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
4.28
TBD
Strike accuracy
40%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.79
TBD
Strike defense
59%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.58
TBD
Takedown accuracy
39%
TBD
Takedown defense
81%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.04

Trajectory

Israel GironMichael Johnson
16001650201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (5%)
KO/TKO
10 (42%)
14 (74%)
Submission
2 (8%)
4 (21%)
Decision
12 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Michael Johnson66%
Israel Giron 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Michael Johnson a 66% favorite over Israel Giron in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Israel Giron's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1613 vs 1613), separated by just 0 points.

Israel Giron finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Michael Johnson 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.