Combat Edge Intelligence

Ivan Erslan vs Thiago Silva

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-6-0Record21-9-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'1"
72"ReachTBD
206 lbsWeight223 lbs
American Top Team ZagrebTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Ivan ErslanNow 1605
If they win+16→ 1621
If they lose-16→ 1589
Thiago SilvaNow 1600
If they win+12→ 1612
If they lose-12→ 1588

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1563 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1555 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.55
Sig. strikes / min
3.92
46%
Strike accuracy
50%
5.01
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.55
54%
Strike defense
67%
0.45
Takedown avg.
1.03
20%
Takedown accuracy
47%
62%
Takedown defense
71%
0
Submission avg.
0.69

Trajectory

Ivan ErslanThiago Silva
160016502017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

10 (67%)
KO/TKO
15 (71%)
1 (7%)
Submission
1 (5%)
4 (27%)
Decision
5 (24%)

Combat Edge model read

Ivan Erslan66%
Thiago Silva 34%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Ivan Erslan a 66% favorite over Thiago Silva in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1605 vs 1600), separated by just 5 points.

Ivan Erslan finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Silva 76%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.