Combat Edge Intelligence

Jacobe Smith vs Jake Shields

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-0-0Record33-11-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'0"
72"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fortis MMATeamCesar Gracie Fight Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jacobe SmithNow 1734
If they win+16→ 1750
If they lose-16→ 1718
Jake ShieldsNow 1734
If they win+12→ 1746
If they lose-12→ 1722

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1530 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1652 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.89
Sig. strikes / min
2.77
68%
Strike accuracy
32%
2.78
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.50
48%
Strike defense
56%
7.78
Takedown avg.
1.19
0%
Takedown accuracy
12%
100%
Takedown defense
36%
0.71
Submission avg.
0.12

Trajectory

Jacobe SmithJake Shields
1650170017502017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (75%)
KO/TKO
3 (9%)
1 (8%)
Submission
12 (36%)
2 (17%)
Decision
18 (55%)

Combat Edge model read

Jacobe Smith71%
Jake Shields 29%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Jacobe Smith a 71% favorite over Jake Shields in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1734 vs 1734), separated by just 0 points.

Jacobe Smith enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Jacobe Smith finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Jake Shields 45%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.