Combat Edge Intelligence

Jai Herbert vs Marcin Held

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Jai Herbert

Jai Herbert

“The Black Country Banger”

14-6-1LightweightUFC

1674Good

Tale of the tape

14-6-1Record29-10-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"Height5'9"
77"Reach39,5"
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
Renegade Jiu JitsuTeamAnkos MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jai HerbertNow 1674
If they win+16→ 1690
If they lose-16→ 1658
Marcin HeldNow 1672
If they win+12→ 1684
If they lose-12→ 1660

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1672 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1601 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.07
Sig. strikes / min
1.41
41%
Strike accuracy
35%
3.26
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.02
53%
Strike defense
47%
0.43
Takedown avg.
2.46
21%
Takedown accuracy
47%
67%
Takedown defense
38%
0
Submission avg.
1.31

Trajectory

Jai HerbertMarcin Held
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

10 (71%)
KO/TKO
4 (14%)
1 (7%)
Submission
15 (52%)
3 (21%)
Decision
10 (34%)

Combat Edge model read

Jai Herbert60%
Marcin Held 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Jai Herbert a 60% favorite over Marcin Held in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1674 vs 1672), separated by just 2 points.

Jai Herbert finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Marcin Held 66%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.