Combat Edge Intelligence

Jarno Errens vs Kron Gracie

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-6-1Record5-3-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'11"Height5'9"
73"Reach70"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team ThrivingTeamKron Gracie Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jarno ErrensNow 1595
If they win+16→ 1611
If they lose-16→ 1579
Kron GracieNow 1591
If they win+24→ 1615
If they lose-24→ 1567

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1554 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1626 · 8 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.29
Sig. strikes / min
3.74
44%
Strike accuracy
45%
3.29
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.82
62%
Strike defense
53%
0
Takedown avg.
0.47
0%
Takedown accuracy
25%
33%
Takedown defense
0%
0.31
Submission avg.
0.47

Trajectory

Jarno ErrensKron Gracie
16001650202320242025

Win method breakdown

3 (20%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
5 (33%)
Submission
5 (100%)
7 (47%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Jarno Errens60%
Kron Gracie 40%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Jarno Errens a 60% favorite over Kron Gracie in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1595 vs 1591), separated by just 4 points.

Kron Gracie enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Jarno Errens finishes 53% of wins inside the distance, Kron Gracie 100%.

Jarno Errens carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.