Jhonata Diniz vs Justin Tafa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-2-0Record7-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'0"
79"Reach74"
255 lbsWeight265 lbs
Santa Fe TeamTeamNTG Fight & Fitness
What's at stake
Jhonata Diniz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Justin Tafa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1682
If they lose-19→ 1650
If they win+19→ 1627
If they lose-13→ 1595
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1595 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1605 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Jhonata DinizJustin Tafa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jhonata Diniz60%
Justin Tafa 40%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Jhonata Diniz a 60% favorite over Justin Tafa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Jhonata Diniz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1669 to 1608, a 61-point edge.
Justin Tafa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jhonata Diniz finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Justin Tafa 100%.
Jhonata Diniz and Justin Tafa share 2 common opponents: Karl Williams and Austen Lane.
Jhonata Diniz carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.