Joel Alvarez vs Paul Hughes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-4-0Record14-3-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height5'9"
77"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight159 lbs
Bandog Fight ClubTeamFight Academy Ireland
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1731
If they lose-16→ 1699
If they win+16→ 1728
If they lose-16→ 1696
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1697 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1622 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joel AlvarezPaul Hughes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joel Alvarez60%
Paul Hughes 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Joel Alvarez a 60% favorite over Paul Hughes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1715 vs 1712), separated by just 3 points.
Joel Alvarez finishes 96% of wins inside the distance, Paul Hughes 71%.
Joel Alvarez carries a 7-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.