Julio Arce vs Marwan Rahiki
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-7-0Record9-0-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'10"
70"Reach72"
147 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team Tiger SchulmannTeamLions Den Academy
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1715
If they lose-12→ 1691
If they win+24→ 1727
If they lose-24→ 1679
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1650 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1517 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Julio ArceMarwan Rahiki
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marwan Rahiki60%
Julio Arce 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Marwan Rahiki a 60% favorite over Julio Arce in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Julio Arce's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1703 vs 1703), separated by just 0 points.
Marwan Rahiki enters on a 9-fight win streak.
Julio Arce finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Marwan Rahiki 100%.
Marwan Rahiki carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.