Combat Edge Intelligence

Julio Arce vs Tommy McMillen

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-7-0Record10-0-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height6'0"
70"Reach74"
147 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team Tiger SchulmannTeamRed Hawk Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Julio ArceNow 1703
If they win+12→ 1715
If they lose-12→ 1691
Tommy McMillenNow 1703
If they win+16→ 1719
If they lose-16→ 1687

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1650 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1501 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.36
Sig. strikes / min
9.87
36%
Strike accuracy
53%
3.05
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.54
68%
Strike defense
58%
0.46
Takedown avg.
0
29%
Takedown accuracy
0%
96%
Takedown defense
83%
0.35
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Julio ArceTommy McMillen
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (33%)
KO/TKO
4 (40%)
5 (24%)
Submission
5 (50%)
9 (43%)
Decision
1 (10%)

Combat Edge model read

Tommy McMillen60%
Julio Arce 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Tommy McMillen a 60% favorite over Julio Arce in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Julio Arce's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1703 vs 1703), separated by just 0 points.

Tommy McMillen enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Julio Arce finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Tommy McMillen 90%.

Tommy McMillen carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.