Combat Edge Intelligence

Keita Nakamura vs Michael Oliveira

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

36-12-2Record9-0-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
73,0"Reach78"
156 lbsWeight170 lbs
United Gym TokyoTeamKO Squad MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Keita NakamuraNow 1693
If they win+12→ 1705
If they lose-12→ 1681
Michael OliveiraNow 1695
If they win+24→ 1719
If they lose-24→ 1671

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1637 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1510 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.23
Sig. strikes / min
8.40
37%
Strike accuracy
51%
3.20
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.36
59%
Strike defense
66%
1.65
Takedown avg.
0
49%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
64%
Takedown defense
100%
0.35
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Keita NakamuraMichael Oliveira
16001650170020242025

Win method breakdown

9 (25%)
KO/TKO
8 (89%)
16 (44%)
Submission
0 (0%)
11 (31%)
Decision
1 (11%)

Combat Edge model read

Michael Oliveira72%
Keita Nakamura 28%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Michael Oliveira a 72% favorite over Keita Nakamura in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1693 vs 1695), separated by just 2 points.

Michael Oliveira enters on a 9-fight win streak.

Keita Nakamura finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Michael Oliveira 89%.

Michael Oliveira carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.