Combat Edge Intelligence

Kevin Szaflarski vs Renan Ferreira

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-2-0Record13-6-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'5"Height6'8"
TBDReach85"
260 lbsWeight264 lbs
Renzo Gracie Jiu JitsuTeamTeam Nogueira

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Kevin SzaflarskiNow 1663
If they win+16→ 1679
If they lose-16→ 1647
Renan FerreiraNow 1666
If they win+16→ 1682
If they lose-16→ 1650

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1492 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1673 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.13
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
28%
Strike accuracy
TBD
8.07
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
30%
Strike defense
TBD
0
Takedown avg.
TBD
0%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
0%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Kevin SzaflarskiRenan Ferreira
1650170020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (45%)
KO/TKO
11 (85%)
4 (36%)
Submission
1 (8%)
2 (18%)
Decision
1 (8%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Kevin Szaflarski and Renan Ferreira within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1663 vs 1666), separated by just 3 points.

Renan Ferreira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Kevin Szaflarski finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Renan Ferreira 92%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.