Combat Edge Intelligence

Koyomi Matsushima vs Kron Gracie

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-7-0Record5-3-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'9"
TBDReach70"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Gaio GymTeamKron Gracie Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Koyomi MatsushimaNow 1588
If they win+16→ 1604
If they lose-16→ 1572
Kron GracieNow 1591
If they win+24→ 1615
If they lose-24→ 1567

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1560 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1626 · 8 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.70
Sig. strikes / min
3.74
47%
Strike accuracy
45%
2.83
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.82
60%
Strike defense
53%
9
Takedown avg.
0.47
53%
Takedown accuracy
25%
33%
Takedown defense
0%
0
Submission avg.
0.47

Trajectory

Koyomi MatsushimaKron Gracie
160020232024

Win method breakdown

8 (57%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
1 (7%)
Submission
5 (100%)
5 (36%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Koyomi Matsushima66%
Kron Gracie 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Koyomi Matsushima a 66% favorite over Kron Gracie in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kron Gracie's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1588 vs 1591), separated by just 3 points.

Kron Gracie enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Koyomi Matsushima finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Kron Gracie 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.