Laurynas Urbonavicius vs Rafael Tobias
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-2-0Record14-2-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'2"
77"Reach74"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Vale Tudo MMA AcademyTeamChute Boxe Monstro
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1693
If they lose-16→ 1661
If they win+16→ 1691
If they lose-16→ 1659
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1525 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1505 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Laurynas UrbonaviciusRafael Tobias
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafael Tobias66%
Laurynas Urbonavicius 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafael Tobias a 66% favorite over Laurynas Urbonavicius in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Laurynas Urbonavicius's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1677 vs 1675), separated by just 2 points.
Laurynas Urbonavicius finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Tobias 79%.
Laurynas Urbonavicius carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.