Combat Edge Intelligence

Lucas Almeida vs Tom Pagliarulo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

15-5-0Record10-2-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
6'0"Height6'0"
71"Reach71"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team KioshiTeamNew England Cartel

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Lucas AlmeidaNow 1651
If they win+16→ 1667
If they lose-16→ 1635
Tom PagliaruloNow 1652
If they win+16→ 1668
If they lose-16→ 1636

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1616 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1501 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.94
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
40%
Strike accuracy
TBD
5.04
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
45%
Strike defense
TBD
0
Takedown avg.
TBD
0%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
54%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Lucas AlmeidaTom Pagliarulo
160016501700202320242025

Win method breakdown

9 (60%)
KO/TKO
8 (80%)
5 (33%)
Submission
1 (10%)
1 (7%)
Decision
1 (10%)

Combat Edge model read

Tom Pagliarulo56%
Lucas Almeida 44%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Tom Pagliarulo a 56% favorite over Lucas Almeida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1651 vs 1652), separated by just 1 points.

Lucas Almeida enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Tom Pagliarulo enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Lucas Almeida finishes 93% of wins inside the distance, Tom Pagliarulo 90%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.