Combat Edge Intelligence

Lucas Fernando vs Marc-André Barriault

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-3-0Record17-11-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
TBDHeight6'1"
TBDReach74"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Rizzo RVTTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Lucas FernandoNow 1641
If they win+16→ 1657
If they lose-16→ 1625
Marc-André BarriaultNow 1638
If they win+12→ 1650
If they lose-12→ 1626

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1525 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1680 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.87
Sig. strikes / min
5.65
52%
Strike accuracy
47%
4.73
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.94
39%
Strike defense
49%
3
Takedown avg.
0.34
30%
Takedown accuracy
7%
0%
Takedown defense
68%
1
Submission avg.
0.09

Trajectory

Lucas FernandoMarc-André Barriault
16001650170020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (50%)
KO/TKO
11 (65%)
2 (20%)
Submission
1 (6%)
3 (30%)
Decision
5 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Lucas Fernando and Marc-André Barriault within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1641 vs 1638), separated by just 3 points.

Marc-André Barriault enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Lucas Fernando finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Marc-André Barriault 71%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.