Lucas Fernando vs Zach Reese
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-3-0Record10-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
TBDHeight6'3"
TBDReach77"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Rizzo RVTTeamW4R Training Center
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1657
If they lose-16→ 1625
If they win+16→ 1660
If they lose-16→ 1628
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1525 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1619 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Lucas FernandoZach Reese
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Zach Reese67%
Lucas Fernando 33%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Zach Reese a 67% favorite over Lucas Fernando in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1641 vs 1644), separated by just 3 points.
Zach Reese enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Lucas Fernando finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Zach Reese 80%.
Lucas Fernando and Zach Reese share 1 common opponent: Azamat Bekoev.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.