Combat Edge Intelligence

Luis Felipe Dias vs Nate Marquardt

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-5-0Record36-20-2
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'0"
74"Reach42,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Parana Vale TudoTeamHigh Altitude Martial Arts

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Luis Felipe DiasNow 1652
If they win+16→ 1668
If they lose-16→ 1636
Nate MarquardtNow 1651
If they win+12→ 1663
If they lose-12→ 1639

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1533 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1622 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.77
Sig. strikes / min
2.71
39%
Strike accuracy
49%
2.70
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.32
53%
Strike defense
56%
6.24
Takedown avg.
1.87
57%
Takedown accuracy
51%
67%
Takedown defense
71%
1.56
Submission avg.
0.85

Trajectory

Luis Felipe DiasNate Marquardt
1600165020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (50%)
KO/TKO
13 (36%)
8 (44%)
Submission
15 (42%)
1 (6%)
Decision
8 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Luis Felipe Dias70%
Nate Marquardt 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Luis Felipe Dias a 70% favorite over Nate Marquardt in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1652 vs 1651), separated by just 1 points.

Luis Felipe Dias enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Luis Felipe Dias finishes 94% of wins inside the distance, Nate Marquardt 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.