Combat Edge Intelligence

Manoel Sousa vs Michael Chandler

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-1-0Record23-11-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'8"
70"Reach71"
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
Academia OctogonoTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Manoel SousaNow 1732
If they win+16→ 1748
If they lose-16→ 1716
Michael ChandlerNow 1732
If they win+12→ 1744
If they lose-12→ 1720

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1550 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1772 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.23
Sig. strikes / min
4.04
58%
Strike accuracy
50%
1.31
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.52
55%
Strike defense
43%
0
Takedown avg.
1.96
0%
Takedown accuracy
41%
63%
Takedown defense
62%
2.31
Submission avg.
0.56

Trajectory

Manoel SousaMichael Chandler
1700175020252026

Win method breakdown

9 (64%)
KO/TKO
11 (48%)
3 (21%)
Submission
7 (30%)
2 (14%)
Decision
5 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Manoel Sousa60%
Michael Chandler 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Manoel Sousa a 60% favorite over Michael Chandler in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1732 vs 1732), separated by just 0 points.

Manoel Sousa enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Michael Chandler enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Manoel Sousa finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Michael Chandler 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.