Combat Edge Intelligence

Marco Tulio Silva Costa vs Matěj Peňáz

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-1-0Record11-1-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'3"
TBDReach83"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team ParaibaTeamReinders MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Marco Tulio Silva CostaNow 1676
If they win+16→ 1692
If they lose-16→ 1660
Matěj PeňázNow 1680
If they win+16→ 1696
If they lose-16→ 1664

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1545 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1508 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.42
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
51%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.78
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
58%
Strike defense
TBD
1.33
Takedown avg.
TBD
20%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
0%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.66
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Marco Tulio Silva CostaMatěj Peňáz
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (64%)
KO/TKO
10 (91%)
1 (9%)
Submission
0 (0%)
3 (27%)
Decision
1 (9%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Marco Tulio Silva Costa and Matěj Peňáz within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1676 vs 1680), separated by just 4 points.

Matěj Peňáz enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Marco Tulio Silva Costa finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Matěj Peňáz 91%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.