Combat Edge Intelligence

Mark Vologdin vs Matt Schnell

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-4-2Record17-11-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'8"
65"Reach70"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Allstars Training CenterTeamFortis MMA

What's at stake

Mark Vologdin is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Matt Schnell carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Mark VologdinNow 1635
If they win+15→ 1650
If they lose-17→ 1618
Matt SchnellNow 1606
If they win+13→ 1619
If they lose-11→ 1595

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1540 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1674 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.93
Sig. strikes / min
4.07
47%
Strike accuracy
40%
10
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.11
41%
Strike defense
55%
0.50
Takedown avg.
0.60
14%
Takedown accuracy
45%
57%
Takedown defense
43%
0
Submission avg.
1.21

Trajectory

Mark VologdinMatt Schnell
16001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (50%)
KO/TKO
2 (13%)
4 (33%)
Submission
9 (56%)
2 (17%)
Decision
5 (31%)

Combat Edge model read

Mark Vologdin61%
Matt Schnell 39%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Mark Vologdin a 61% favorite over Matt Schnell in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Mark Vologdin holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1635 to 1606, a 29-point edge.

Matt Schnell enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Mark Vologdin finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Matt Schnell 69%.

Matt Schnell carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.