Combat Edge Intelligence

Matt Adams vs Yorgan De Castro

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →
Matt Adams
us

Matt Adams

“Bad”

6-2-0HeavyweightOCL

1584Solid

Tale of the tape

6-2-0Record12-7-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
5'10"Height6'1"
74"Reach74"
263 lbsWeight265 lbs
Raw MMATeamRegiment Training Center

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Matt AdamsNow 1584
If they win+24→ 1608
If they lose-24→ 1560
Yorgan De CastroNow 1583
If they win+16→ 1599
If they lose-16→ 1567

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1496 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1545 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.46
TBD
Strike accuracy
44%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.85
TBD
Strike defense
54%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
0%
TBD
Takedown defense
78%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Matt AdamsYorgan De Castro
1500155016002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (83%)
KO/TKO
9 (75%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (8%)
1 (17%)
Decision
2 (17%)

Combat Edge model read

Matt Adams71%
Yorgan De Castro 29%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Matt Adams a 71% favorite over Yorgan De Castro in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1584 vs 1583), separated by just 1 points.

Matt Adams finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Yorgan De Castro 83%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.