Combat Edge Intelligence

Mauricio Ruffy vs Rafa García

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-2-0Record19-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'7"
75"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
The Fighting NerdsTeamTeam Elevation

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Mauricio RuffyNow 1748
If they win+16→ 1764
If they lose-16→ 1732
Rafa GarcíaNow 1756
If they win+16→ 1772
If they lose-16→ 1740

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1659 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1679 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.19
Sig. strikes / min
4.31
58%
Strike accuracy
46%
4.09
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.54
59%
Strike defense
61%
0
Takedown avg.
3.13
0%
Takedown accuracy
44%
85%
Takedown defense
76%
0
Submission avg.
0.45

Trajectory

Mauricio RuffyRafa García
165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

13 (93%)
KO/TKO
2 (11%)
0 (0%)
Submission
8 (44%)
1 (7%)
Decision
8 (44%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Mauricio Ruffy and Rafa García within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1748 vs 1756), separated by just 8 points.

Mauricio Ruffy enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Rafa García enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Mauricio Ruffy finishes 93% of wins inside the distance, Rafa García 56%.

Mauricio Ruffy carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.