Combat Edge Intelligence

Misha Cirkunov vs Rafael Tobias

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-9-0Record14-2-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
77"Reach74"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamChute Boxe Monstro

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Misha CirkunovNow 1670
If they win+16→ 1686
If they lose-16→ 1654
Rafael TobiasNow 1675
If they win+16→ 1691
If they lose-16→ 1659

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1682 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1505 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.86
Sig. strikes / min
3.45
52%
Strike accuracy
31%
3.06
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.98
58%
Strike defense
40%
4.15
Takedown avg.
3.98
40%
Takedown accuracy
100%
77%
Takedown defense
0%
1.71
Submission avg.
3.98

Trajectory

Misha CirkunovRafael Tobias
1650170020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (33%)
KO/TKO
5 (36%)
8 (53%)
Submission
6 (43%)
2 (13%)
Decision
3 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Rafael Tobias70%
Misha Cirkunov 30%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Rafael Tobias a 70% favorite over Misha Cirkunov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1670 vs 1675), separated by just 5 points.

Misha Cirkunov enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Misha Cirkunov finishes 87% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Tobias 79%.

Misha Cirkunov carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.