Combat Edge Intelligence

Myktybek Orolbai vs Sam Patterson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-2-1Record14-3-1
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'4"
74"Reach78"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Uluu KyrgyzTeamTeam Crossface

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Myktybek OrolbaiNow 1730
If they win+16→ 1746
If they lose-16→ 1714
Sam PattersonNow 1729
If they win+16→ 1745
If they lose-16→ 1713

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1622 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1621 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.41
Sig. strikes / min
3.89
50%
Strike accuracy
44%
5.70
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.93
29%
Strike defense
50%
0
Takedown avg.
1.39
45%
Takedown accuracy
100%
0%
Takedown defense
33%
0
Submission avg.
2.78

Trajectory

Myktybek OrolbaiSam Patterson
165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (44%)
KO/TKO
6 (43%)
6 (38%)
Submission
7 (50%)
3 (19%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Myktybek Orolbai and Sam Patterson within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1730 vs 1729), separated by just 1 points.

Myktybek Orolbai enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Myktybek Orolbai finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Sam Patterson 93%.

Sam Patterson carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.