Nikita Krylov vs Thiago Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
31-12-0Record22-13-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
77"Reach 76"
215 lbsWeight241 lbs
Raty TeamTeamTeam Marreta
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1703
If they lose-12→ 1679
If they win+12→ 1706
If they lose-12→ 1682
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1709 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1743 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Nikita KrylovThiago Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nikita Krylov84%
Thiago Santos 16%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Nikita Krylov a 84% favorite over Thiago Santos in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Thiago Santos's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1691 vs 1694), separated by just 3 points.
Thiago Santos enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Nikita Krylov finishes 94% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Santos 73%.
Nikita Krylov and Thiago Santos share 2 common opponents: Magomed Ankalaev and Johnny Walker.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.