Paul Sass vs Thiago Moisés
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-2-0Record19-10-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"Height5'9"
TBDReach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team KaobonTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1698
If they lose-16→ 1666
If they win+12→ 1695
If they lose-12→ 1671
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1544 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1680 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Paul SassThiago Moisés
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Thiago Moisés66%
Paul Sass 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Thiago Moisés a 66% favorite over Paul Sass in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1682 vs 1683), separated by just 1 points.
Thiago Moisés enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Paul Sass finishes 93% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Moisés 63%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.