Rafa García vs Will Brooks
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-4-0Record26-5-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'11"
70"Reach72,0"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team ElevationTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1772
If they lose-16→ 1740
If they win+12→ 1775
If they lose-12→ 1751
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1679 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1599 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Rafa GarcíaWill Brooks
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafa García70%
Will Brooks 30%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafa García a 70% favorite over Will Brooks in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Will Brooks's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1756 vs 1763), separated by just 7 points.
Rafa García enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Will Brooks enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Rafa García finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Will Brooks 50%.
Will Brooks carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.