Combat Edge Intelligence

Rafael Tobias vs Rodolfo Bellato

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-2-0Record13-3-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'3"
74"Reach77"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Chute Boxe MonstroTeamKnockout Squad

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Rafael TobiasNow 1675
If they win+16→ 1691
If they lose-16→ 1659
Rodolfo BellatoNow 1678
If they win+16→ 1694
If they lose-16→ 1662

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1505 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1600 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.45
Sig. strikes / min
5.37
31%
Strike accuracy
60%
3.98
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.86
40%
Strike defense
47%
3.98
Takedown avg.
1.38
100%
Takedown accuracy
35%
0%
Takedown defense
94%
3.98
Submission avg.
0.23

Trajectory

Rafael TobiasRodolfo Bellato
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (36%)
KO/TKO
8 (62%)
6 (43%)
Submission
4 (31%)
3 (21%)
Decision
1 (8%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Rafael Tobias and Rodolfo Bellato within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1675 vs 1678), separated by just 3 points.

Rafael Tobias finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Rodolfo Bellato 92%.

Rodolfo Bellato carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.