Combat Edge Intelligence

Rafael Tobias vs Simeon Powell

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-2-0Record12-2-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'4"
74"Reach85"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Chute Boxe MonstroTeamTitan Fighter Gym

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Rafael TobiasNow 1675
If they win+16→ 1691
If they lose-16→ 1659
Simeon PowellNow 1672
If they win+16→ 1688
If they lose-16→ 1656

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1505 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1547 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.45
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
31%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.98
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
40%
Strike defense
TBD
3.98
Takedown avg.
TBD
100%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
0%
Takedown defense
TBD
3.98
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Rafael TobiasSimeon Powell
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (36%)
KO/TKO
6 (50%)
6 (43%)
Submission
3 (25%)
3 (21%)
Decision
3 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Rafael Tobias and Simeon Powell within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1675 vs 1672), separated by just 3 points.

Rafael Tobias finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Simeon Powell 75%.

Simeon Powell carries a 11-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.