Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexander Hernandez vs Tommy Gantt

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-9-0Record12-0-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'11"
72"Reach76"
148 lbsWeight155 lbs
Factory XTeamJaw Breaker Boxing

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alexander HernandezNow 1716
If they win+12→ 1728
If they lose-12→ 1704
Tommy GanttNow 1720
If they win+16→ 1736
If they lose-16→ 1704

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1704 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1501 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.31
Sig. strikes / min
1.08
41%
Strike accuracy
100%
4.50
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
0.36
59%
Strike defense
67%
1.14
Takedown avg.
10.78
36%
Takedown accuracy
40%
73%
Takedown defense
0%
0.09
Submission avg.
5.39

Trajectory

Alexander HernandezTommy Gantt
1550160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (44%)
KO/TKO
6 (50%)
2 (11%)
Submission
5 (42%)
8 (44%)
Decision
1 (8%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Alexander Hernandez and Tommy Gantt within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1716 vs 1720), separated by just 4 points.

Tommy Gantt enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Alexander Hernandez finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Tommy Gantt 92%.

Tommy Gantt carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.