Ariane Carnelossi vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-5-0Record16-10-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'2"Height5'3"
61"Reach 64"
115 lbsWeight116 lbs
Inside Muay ThaiTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1641
If they lose-16→ 1609
If they win+12→ 1643
If they lose-12→ 1619
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1594 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1627 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ariane CarnelossiKarolina Kowalkiewicz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ariane Carnelossi66%
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 34%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Ariane Carnelossi a 66% favorite over Karolina Kowalkiewicz in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Karolina Kowalkiewicz's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1625 vs 1631), separated by just 6 points.
Ariane Carnelossi enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Ariane Carnelossi finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Karolina Kowalkiewicz 25%.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.