Combat Edge Intelligence

Carlos Candelario vs Jose Johnson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-3-0Record16-10-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height6'0"
68"Reach71"
129 lbsWeight125 lbs
Underdog Brazilian Jiu-JitsuTeamTwin Wolves MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Carlos CandelarioNow 1614
If they win+16→ 1630
If they lose-16→ 1598
Jose JohnsonNow 1608
If they win+12→ 1620
If they lose-12→ 1596

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1562 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1616 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.97
Sig. strikes / min
2.22
47%
Strike accuracy
58%
5.17
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.64
44%
Strike defense
53%
2.28
Takedown avg.
0.71
36%
Takedown accuracy
60%
54%
Takedown defense
39%
0.28
Submission avg.
0.71

Trajectory

Carlos CandelarioJose Johnson
160016502022202320242025

Win method breakdown

2 (25%)
KO/TKO
8 (50%)
3 (38%)
Submission
3 (19%)
3 (38%)
Decision
5 (31%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Carlos Candelario and Jose Johnson within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1614 vs 1608), separated by just 6 points.

Carlos Candelario enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Jose Johnson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Carlos Candelario finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Jose Johnson 69%.

Jose Johnson carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.