Combat Edge Intelligence

Carlos Candelario vs Kiru Sahota

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-3-0Record12-3-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'10"
68"Reach73"
129 lbsWeight126 lbs
Underdog Brazilian Jiu-JitsuTeamManchester Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Carlos CandelarioNow 1614
If they win+16→ 1630
If they lose-16→ 1598
Kiru SahotaNow 1609
If they win+16→ 1625
If they lose-16→ 1593

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1562 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1506 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.97
Sig. strikes / min
4.33
47%
Strike accuracy
57%
5.17
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.47
44%
Strike defense
42%
2.28
Takedown avg.
1
36%
Takedown accuracy
33%
54%
Takedown defense
50%
0.28
Submission avg.
0.50

Trajectory

Carlos CandelarioKiru Sahota
16001650202220232024

Win method breakdown

2 (25%)
KO/TKO
6 (50%)
3 (38%)
Submission
2 (17%)
3 (38%)
Decision
4 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Kiru Sahota55%
Carlos Candelario 45%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Kiru Sahota a 55% favorite over Carlos Candelario in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Carlos Candelario's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1614 vs 1609), separated by just 5 points.

Carlos Candelario enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Kiru Sahota enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Carlos Candelario finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Kiru Sahota 67%.

Kiru Sahota carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.