Dustin Poirier vs Michael Chandler
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-10-0Record23-11-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'8"
72″Reach71"
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
American Top TeamTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Dustin Poirier is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Michael Chandler carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1821
If they lose-15→ 1797
If they win+15→ 1747
If they lose-9→ 1723
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1814 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1772 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dustin PoirierMichael Chandler
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dustin Poirier72%
Michael Chandler 28%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Dustin Poirier a 72% favorite over Michael Chandler in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Dustin Poirier holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1812 to 1732, a 80-point edge.
Dustin Poirier enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Michael Chandler enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Dustin Poirier finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Michael Chandler 78%.
Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler share 3 common opponents: Justin Gaethje, Charles Oliveira and Dan Hooker.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.