Combat Edge Intelligence

Jacobe Smith vs Myktybek Orolbai

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-0-0Record16-2-1
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
72"Reach74"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Fortis MMATeamUluu Kyrgyz

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jacobe SmithNow 1734
If they win+16→ 1750
If they lose-16→ 1718
Myktybek OrolbaiNow 1730
If they win+16→ 1746
If they lose-16→ 1714

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1530 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1622 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.89
Sig. strikes / min
0.41
68%
Strike accuracy
50%
2.78
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.70
48%
Strike defense
29%
7.78
Takedown avg.
0
0%
Takedown accuracy
45%
100%
Takedown defense
0%
0.71
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Jacobe SmithMyktybek Orolbai
165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (75%)
KO/TKO
7 (44%)
1 (8%)
Submission
6 (38%)
2 (17%)
Decision
3 (19%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Jacobe Smith and Myktybek Orolbai within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1734 vs 1730), separated by just 4 points.

Jacobe Smith enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Myktybek Orolbai enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Jacobe Smith finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Myktybek Orolbai 81%.

Myktybek Orolbai carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.