Combat Edge Intelligence

Jon Kunneman vs Kelvin Gastelum

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-0-0Record20-11-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height5'9"
77.2"Reach71"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamFight Ready

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Jon KunnemanNow 1697
If they win+16→ 1713
If they lose-16→ 1681
Kelvin GastelumNow 1693
If they win+12→ 1705
If they lose-12→ 1681

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1484 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1715 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.67
TBD
Strike accuracy
42%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.53
TBD
Strike defense
57%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.01
TBD
Takedown accuracy
34%
TBD
Takedown defense
60%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.09

Trajectory

Jon KunnemanKelvin Gastelum
1550160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (30%)
KO/TKO
6 (30%)
7 (70%)
Submission
5 (25%)
0 (0%)
Decision
9 (45%)

Combat Edge model read

Jon Kunneman60%
Kelvin Gastelum 40%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Jon Kunneman a 60% favorite over Kelvin Gastelum in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1697 vs 1693), separated by just 4 points.

Jon Kunneman enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Jon Kunneman finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Kelvin Gastelum 55%.

Jon Kunneman carries a 6-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.