Combat Edge Intelligence

Akhmed Magomedov vs Carlton Minus

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-5-0Record14-5-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'11"
-Reach75,0"
156 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fight Club AkhmatTeamAvalanche Wrestling Association

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Akhmed MagomedovNow 1601
If they win+16→ 1617
If they lose-16→ 1585
Carlton MinusNow 1599
If they win+16→ 1615
If they lose-16→ 1583

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1546 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1543 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.50
TBD
Strike accuracy
40%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.97
TBD
Strike defense
50%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
0%
TBD
Takedown defense
59%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Akhmed MagomedovCarlton Minus
160016502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (10%)
KO/TKO
10 (71%)
3 (30%)
Submission
1 (7%)
6 (60%)
Decision
3 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Akhmed Magomedov61%
Carlton Minus 39%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Akhmed Magomedov a 61% favorite over Carlton Minus in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1601 vs 1599), separated by just 2 points.

Akhmed Magomedov enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Akhmed Magomedov finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Carlton Minus 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.