Public model accountability
Model scorecard
Every Combat Edge prediction is generated before fight night, frozen, and graded here once results land — hits and misses alike. Explore the complete record by event, promotion, model version, confidence and time period, with the same fights scored against an Elo-only baseline. Analytics, not betting advice.
62%Model accuracy
356Graded fights
63%Elo-only baseline
v0.7-2026-08-28Current frozen version
Combat Edge model62%222 of 356 fights called correctlyBrier 0.228 · Log-loss 0.647
Elo-only baseline63%225 of 356 fights called correctlyBrier 0.234 · Log-loss 0.660
50/50 probability baselineEven oddsThe same probability for every fighterBrier 0.250 · Log-loss 0.693
Evaluation scope all stored prediction records
555Stored predictions
122Upcoming / result window
433Evaluation candidates
356Graded
77Excluded
A record becomes an evaluation candidate six hours after its event starts. It is graded only when it was generated before that start time, maps to the stored bout, has valid probabilities, and the result names one of the two fighters as winner.
Why records were excluded all ungraded evaluation candidates
| Reason | Records |
|---|---|
| No recorded winner (pending, draw, NC or cancelled) | 57 |
| Generated at or after event start | 20 |
Live calibration confidence should match observed win rate
50–59%147 fights
54.0%54.4%+0.5 pts
60–69%136 fights
63.8%61.8%-2 pts
70–79%55 fights
74.1%83.6%+9.5 pts
80–89%16 fights
84.1%62.5%-21.6 pts
90–100%2 fights
92.3%100.0%+7.7 pts
View exact calibration data
| Confidence | Fights | Average | Observed | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–59% | 147 | 54.0% | 54.4% | +0.5 pts |
| 60–69% | 136 | 63.8% | 61.8% | -2 pts |
| 70–79% | 55 | 74.1% | 83.6% | +9.5 pts |
| 80–89% | 16 | 84.1% | 62.5% | -21.6 pts |
| 90–100% | 2 | 92.3% | 100.0% | +7.7 pts |
By model version forward-only · frozen predictions
| Version | Graded | Accuracy | Log-loss | Brier | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v0.7-2026-08-28 Current | 125 | 60% | 0.700 | 0.251 | Aug 28, 2026 – Sep 15, 2026 |
| v0.5-2026-07-01 | 197 | 62% | 0.623 | 0.218 | Jul 10, 2026 – Aug 28, 2026 |
| v3-2026-06-10 | 34 | 71% | 0.588 | 0.199 | Jun 20, 2026 – Jun 27, 2026 |
Event reports
12 of 36 eventsModel scorecards by event
Open an event to see every graded pick, the Elo comparison and the model’s most confident hit and miss. Event summaries use only the active filters above.
UFC · Sep 15, 2026CONTENDER SERIES 2026 : WEEK 63/560% accuracyElo +1
Model3/5
Elo baseline4/5
Average confidence63%
Brier0.208
Log-loss0.596
Most confident hitAkbar Abdullaev · 83%
Most confident missZevan Hunt · 63%Mayton Perea won
HitOscar Ravello vs Igor CavalcantiPicked Igor Cavalcanti · 58%Winner: Igor CavalcantiHitEdnilson Santos vs Akbar AbdullaevPicked Akbar Abdullaev · 83%Winner: Akbar AbdullaevMissZevan Hunt vs Mayton PereaPicked Zevan Hunt · 63%Winner: Mayton PereaMissLuis Hernandez vs Hugo GuillonPicked Hugo Guillon · 52%Winner: Luis HernandezHitTyshawn Williams vs Antônio MonteiroPicked Tyshawn Williams · 60%Winner: Tyshawn Williams
ZUFFA · Sep 12, 2026ZUFFA BOXING : GARCIA VS BENN7/978% accuracyModel tied Elo
Model7/9
Elo baseline7/9
Average confidence53%
Brier0.227
Log-loss0.648
Most confident hitDamazion Vanhouter · 57%
Most confident missRaul Salomon · 53%Abel Gonzalez won
MissAbel Gonzalez vs Raul SalomonPicked Raul Salomon · 53%Winner: Abel GonzalezHitVlad Panin vs Dakota LingerPicked Vlad Panin · 51%Winner: Vlad PaninHitAlexis Rocha vs Jose RamirezPicked Alexis Rocha · 53%Winner: Alexis RochaHitSean Garcia vs Abraham MoralesPicked Sean Garcia · 54%Winner: Sean GarciaHitOswaldo Molina vs Pablo Rubio Jr.Picked Oswaldo Molina · 57%Winner: Oswaldo MolinaHitJai Opetaia vs Noel MikaelyanPicked Jai Opetaia · 51%Winner: Jai OpetaiaMissMark Magsayo vs Andres CortesPicked Mark Magsayo · 52%Winner: Andres CortesHitRaphael Akpejiori vs Damazion VanhouterPicked Damazion Vanhouter · 57%Winner: Damazion VanhouterHitRyan Garcia vs Conor BennPicked Ryan Garcia · 54%Winner: Ryan Garcia
UFC · Sep 12, 2026NOCHE UFC : SILVA VS DELGADO9/1369% accuracyModel +2 vs Elo
Model9/13
Elo baseline7/13
Average confidence62%
Brier0.227
Log-loss0.645
Most confident hitTommy Gantt · 73%
Most confident missRafa García · 69%Rongzhu won
HitDavid Martinez vs Dan IgePicked David Martinez · 73%Winner: David MartinezMissWaldo Cortes-Acosta vs Curtis BlaydesPicked Waldo Cortes-Acosta · 56%Winner: Curtis BlaydesHitBrandon Moreno vs Joseph MoralesPicked Brandon Moreno · 59%Winner: Brandon MorenoHitIgnacio Bahamondes vs Muslim SalikhovPicked Ignacio Bahamondes · 69%Winner: Ignacio BahamondesMissManon Fiorot vs Alexa GrassoPicked Manon Fiorot · 57%Winner: Alexa GrassoHitTommy McMillen vs Marwan RahikiPicked Tommy McMillen · 56%Winner: Tommy McMillenHitTim Elliott vs Edgar CháirezPicked Tim Elliott · 51%Winner: Tim ElliottHitJJ Aldrich vs Regina TarinPicked Regina Tarin · 61%Winner: Regina TarinHitDrakkar Klose vs Tommy GanttPicked Tommy Gantt · 73%Winner: Tommy GanttHitSean King vs Jessie RosasPicked Sean King · 55%Winner: Sean KingHitYousri Belgaroui vs Djorden SantosPicked Yousri Belgaroui · 58%Winner: Yousri BelgarouiMissRafa García vs RongzhuPicked Rafa García · 69%Winner: RongzhuMissJean Silva vs Jose DelgadoPicked Jose Delgado · 68%Winner: Jean Silva
OKTAGON · Sep 12, 2026OKTAGON 93 : ROUSAL VS MAGARD6/967% accuracyModel +1 vs Elo
Model6/9
Elo baseline5/9
Average confidence58%
Brier0.252
Log-loss0.699
Most confident hitVladimír Lengál · 61%
Most confident missAndrej Kalašnik · 63%Kennedy Rayomba won
HitRadek Roušal vs Jonas MågårdPicked Jonas Mågård · 54%Winner: Jonas MågårdHitVladimír Lengál vs Maurice AdorfPicked Vladimír Lengál · 61%Winner: Vladimír LengálMissDaniel Ligocki vs Brajan PrzysiwekPicked Brajan Przysiwek · 59%Winner: Daniel LigockiHitVojtech Garba vs Robert LauPicked Robert Lau · 55%Winner: Robert LauMissJakub Dohnal vs Vojto BarboríkPicked Vojto Barborík · 60%Winner: Jakub DohnalHitAli Gündüz vs David Daniel KomarPicked Ali Gündüz · 59%Winner: Ali GündüzHitŠimon Bruknar vs Nathan HaywoodPicked Šimon Bruknar · 55%Winner: Šimon BruknarHitNiamh Kinehan vs Alana CookPicked Niamh Kinehan · 53%Winner: Niamh KinehanMissAndrej Kalašnik vs Kennedy RayombaPicked Andrej Kalašnik · 63%Winner: Kennedy Rayomba
ACA · Sep 12, 2026ACA 207 : GONCHAROV VS ALMEIDA5/1436% accuracyElo +2
Model5/14
Elo baseline7/14
Average confidence63%
Brier0.291
Log-loss0.782
Most confident hitChermen Gobaev · 75%
Most confident missJailton Almeida · 78%Evgeny Goncharov won
HitAkhmed Musakaev vs Chermen GobaevPicked Chermen Gobaev · 75%Winner: Chermen GobaevMissEvgeny Egemberdiev vs Arbi AguevPicked Evgeny Egemberdiev · 62%Winner: Arbi AguevMissKhasan Dadalov vs Bagama NikabagamaevPicked Bagama Nikabagamaev · 57%Winner: Khasan DadalovMissBogdan Plutakhin vs Nemat AbdrashitovPicked Nemat Abdrashitov · 62%Winner: Bogdan PlutakhinHitMukhamed Kokov vs Alexey PolpudnikovPicked Alexey Polpudnikov · 58%Winner: Alexey PolpudnikovMissShamil Ramazanov vs Denis MaherPicked Shamil Ramazanov · 52%Winner: Denis MaherMissSharapudin Magomedov vs Albert MisikovPicked Albert Misikov · 55%Winner: Sharapudin MagomedovHitNikolay Galochkin vs Gegam ManavazyanPicked Nikolay Galochkin · 67%Winner: Nikolay GalochkinMissIbragim Kantaev vs Hacran DiasPicked Ibragim Kantaev · 56%Winner: Hacran DiasMissAndrey Koshkin vs Herdeson BatistaPicked Herdeson Batista · 60%Winner: Andrey KoshkinMissMuslim Ibragimov vs Michel SilvaPicked Muslim Ibragimov · 74%Winner: Michel SilvaHitMurad Kalamov vs Ruslan AbiltarovPicked Murad Kalamov · 72%Winner: Murad KalamovHitKirill Kornilov vs Khadis IbragimovPicked Kirill Kornilov · 60%Winner: Kirill KornilovMissEvgeny Goncharov vs Jailton AlmeidaPicked Jailton Almeida · 78%Winner: Evgeny Goncharov
LFA · Sep 11, 2026LFA 241 : PIRES VS PEREIRA8/1457% accuracyElo +1
Model8/14
Elo baseline9/14
Average confidence56%
Brier0.234
Log-loss0.661
Most confident hitEduardo Dutra · 66%
Most confident missMarcos Silva · 59%Neemias Santana won
HitEduardo Dutra vs Júlio AssunçãoPicked Eduardo Dutra · 66%Winner: Eduardo DutraMissVictor Santos vs Marcos SilvaPicked Victor Santos · 55%Winner: Marcos SilvaHitThalyta Silva vs Mônica FontesPicked Thalyta Silva · 53%Winner: Thalyta SilvaHitLaryssa Leila vs Fernanda AtômicaPicked Laryssa Leila · 53%Winner: Laryssa LeilaHitNicollas Santos vs Jackson SoaresPicked Nicollas Santos · 60%Winner: Nicollas SantosHitJoão Vitor Pereira vs Adam SantosPicked Adam Santos · 50%Winner: Adam SantosMissBreno Yuri vs Fábio PerpetuaPicked Breno Yuri · 53%Winner: Fábio PerpetuaMissVinicius Pires vs Rafael PereiraPicked Vinicius Pires · 57%Winner: Rafael PereiraHitCarlos Soares vs Gustavo PintosPicked Gustavo Pintos · 62%Winner: Gustavo PintosMissNeemias Santana vs Marcos SilvaPicked Marcos Silva · 59%Winner: Neemias SantanaMissGustavo Rocha vs Felipe RosaPicked Felipe Rosa · 52%Winner: Gustavo RochaMissRaiane Vinuto vs Marina MonteiroPicked Marina Monteiro · 50%Winner: Raiane VinutoHitEmerson Richard vs Salomão AlbuquerquePicked Salomão Albuquerque · 53%Winner: Salomão AlbuquerqueHitLucas Silva vs Lucas SilvaPicked Lucas Silva · 58%Winner: Lucas Silva
UFC · Sep 8, 2026CONTENDER SERIES 2026 : WEEK 52/450% accuracyElo +1
Model2/4
Elo baseline3/4
Average confidence70%
Brier0.389
Log-loss1.040
Most confident hitMartin Kozák · 67%
Most confident missArlind Berisha · 84%Quentin Pasley won
HitWon Il Kwon vs Apollo GomesPicked Apollo Gomes · 56%Winner: Apollo GomesMissIsaac Moreno vs Reginaldo JuniorPicked Reginaldo Junior · 75%Winner: Isaac MorenoMissQuentin Pasley vs Arlind BerishaPicked Arlind Berisha · 84%Winner: Quentin PasleyHitMartin Kozák vs Christian EcholsPicked Martin Kozák · 67%Winner: Martin Kozák
UFC · Sep 5, 2026UFC FIGHT NIGHT : HOOKER VS PARNASSE8/1457% accuracyElo +3
Model8/14
Elo baseline11/14
Average confidence64%
Brier0.273
Log-loss0.751
Most confident hitMario Pinto · 80%
Most confident missSofia Montenegro · 81%Delphine Benouaich won
HitDan Hooker vs Salahdine ParnassePicked Salahdine Parnasse · 58%Winner: Salahdine ParnasseHitMichael Page vs Nursulton RuziboevPicked Michael Page · 69%Winner: Michael PageHitKurtis Campbell vs Trevor PeekPicked Kurtis Campbell · 60%Winner: Kurtis CampbellHitMario Pinto vs Ryan SpannPicked Mario Pinto · 80%Winner: Mario PintoHitDaniil Donchenko vs Punahele SorianoPicked Daniil Donchenko · 62%Winner: Daniil DonchenkoMissMichael Aljarouj vs Fabia SintesPicked Michael Aljarouj · 78%Winner: Fabia SintesMissDelphine Benouaich vs Sofia MontenegroPicked Sofia Montenegro · 81%Winner: Delphine BenouaichMissNora Cornolle vs Klaudia SygułaPicked Klaudia Syguła · 61%Winner: Nora CornolleHitNathaniel Wood vs Pavel AndruscaPicked Pavel Andrusca · 50%Winner: Pavel AndruscaMissOumar Sy vs Modestas BukauskasPicked Oumar Sy · 64%Winner: Modestas BukauskasHitLosene Keita vs Muhammad NaimovPicked Losene Keita · 53%Winner: Losene KeitaHitMorgan Charrière vs Felipe LimaPicked Felipe Lima · 75%Winner: Felipe LimaMissMatthieu Duclos vs Luis Felipe DiasPicked Luis Felipe Dias · 52%Winner: Matthieu DuclosMissFares Ziam vs Axel SolaPicked Fares Ziam · 59%Winner: Axel Sola
SAMOURAI · Sep 4, 2026SAMOURAI MMA 21 : DUFORT VS CHAPUT5/863% accuracyElo +1
Model5/8
Elo baseline6/8
Average confidence58%
Brier0.226
Log-loss0.643
Most confident hitMichael Dufort · 67%
Most confident missJaime Ortiz · 58%Tristan Gagne won
MissTristan Gagne vs Jaime OrtizPicked Jaime Ortiz · 58%Winner: Tristan GagneHitMichael Dufort vs Antoine ChaputPicked Michael Dufort · 67%Winner: Michael DufortHitMaxim Cote vs Joshua SierraPicked Maxim Cote · 54%Winner: Maxim CoteHitMehdi Zeidvand vs Nonato JuniorPicked Mehdi Zeidvand · 62%Winner: Mehdi ZeidvandMissMohamed Ado vs Mac LaursenPicked Mac Laursen · 53%Winner: Mohamed AdoHitAlex Morgan vs Nilton GaviãoPicked Alex Morgan · 59%Winner: Alex MorganHitGabriel Tabet vs Chris DroegePicked Chris Droege · 53%Winner: Chris DroegeMissValentyn Bulat vs Nichollas PestilliPicked Nichollas Pestilli · 57%Winner: Valentyn Bulat
CFFC · Sep 4, 2026CFFC 160 : KOSTYUCHENKO VS VEAL6/875% accuracyModel tied Elo
Model6/8
Elo baseline6/8
Average confidence57%
Brier0.201
Log-loss0.592
Most confident hitBuddha Hanchard · 67%
Most confident missBrent Williams · 53%Brandon Bohannan won
HitSebastian Quevedo vs Kaelob AlgerPicked Sebastian Quevedo · 51%Winner: Sebastian QuevedoHitElvin Romero vs Dan HoltPicked Elvin Romero · 50%Winner: Elvin RomeroHitEgor Kostyuchenko vs Tyler VealPicked Egor Kostyuchenko · 66%Winner: Egor KostyuchenkoMissBrent Williams vs Brandon BohannanPicked Brent Williams · 53%Winner: Brandon BohannanHitSean Clabough vs Buddha HanchardPicked Buddha Hanchard · 67%Winner: Buddha HanchardHitT.J. Schaefer vs Connor CyphertPicked T.J. Schaefer · 56%Winner: T.J. SchaeferHitLucas Cortes vs Johnny SantosPicked Johnny Santos · 59%Winner: Johnny SantosMissKarli Jo Patton vs Ashley BarrettPicked Ashley Barrett · 51%Winner: Karli Jo Patton
UFC · Sep 1, 2026CONTENDER SERIES 2026 : WEEK 43/560% accuracyElo +1
Model3/5
Elo baseline4/5
Average confidence65%
Brier0.364
Log-loss0.965
Most confident hitAdam Darby · 62%
Most confident missCharlie Cleveland · 80%Gabriel Lourenço won
HitAdam Livingston vs Hunter SmithPicked Adam Livingston · 54%Winner: Adam LivingstonMissCharlie Cleveland vs Gabriel LourençoPicked Charlie Cleveland · 80%Winner: Gabriel LourençoHitLiam McCracken vs Silvestre SanchezPicked Silvestre Sanchez · 52%Winner: Silvestre SanchezMissBrandon Holmes vs Modestino RodriguesPicked Brandon Holmes · 76%Winner: Modestino RodriguesHitPatrick Rivera vs Adam DarbyPicked Adam Darby · 62%Winner: Adam Darby
UFC · Aug 29, 2026UFC FIGHT NIGHT : NURMAGOMEDOV VS SONG8/1362% accuracyModel +3 vs Elo
Model8/13
Elo baseline5/13
Average confidence69%
Brier0.247
Log-loss0.692
Most confident hitBilal Hasan · 84%
Most confident missMeng Ding · 81%Cam Nelson won
HitAoriqileng vs Kai AsakuraPicked Kai Asakura · 73%Winner: Kai AsakuraHitBilal Hasan vs Nilson RojasPicked Bilal Hasan · 84%Winner: Bilal HasanMissCe Liu vs Levi Rodrigues Jr.Picked Levi Rodrigues Jr. · 67%Winner: Ce LiuMissUmar Nurmagomedov vs Yadong SongPicked Umar Nurmagomedov · 74%Winner: Yadong SongMissMeng Ding vs Cam NelsonPicked Meng Ding · 81%Winner: Cam NelsonHitRei Tsuruya vs Kevin BorjasPicked Rei Tsuruya · 77%Winner: Rei TsuruyaHitNamsrai Batbayar vs André LimaPicked André Lima · 64%Winner: André LimaHitJack Jenkins vs Sean WoodsonPicked Sean Woodson · 63%Winner: Sean WoodsonHitJingnan Xiong vs Julia PolastriPicked Julia Polastri · 68%Winner: Julia PolastriHitXiaonan Yan vs Denise GomesPicked Denise Gomes · 64%Winner: Denise GomesHitSumudaerji vs Alex PerezPicked Sumudaerji · 62%Winner: SumudaerjiMissLawrence Lui vs Hector SantiagoPicked Lawrence Lui · 64%Winner: Hector SantiagoMissLong Xiao vs Francesco NuzziPicked Long Xiao · 59%Winner: Francesco Nuzzi
How grading works
- Frozen pre-fight. Predictions are written by an automated job while an event is upcoming and stop updating once it starts. Only records generated before the stored event time are graded — nothing is back-filled.
- Eligibility is explicit. Every valid frozen prediction with a recorded winner counts: favorites, underdogs and prelims. Missing results, invalid mappings and late records stay out of the score and remain visible in the exclusion audit.
- Accuracy is the share of fights where the fighter the model gave ≥50% actually won.
- Brier score and log-loss grade the probability, not just the pick. Lower is better; confident misses are penalized more. A 50/50 forecast has Brier 0.250 and log-loss 0.693 on any set of binary results.
- Live calibration groups the model’s chosen fighter by confidence, then compares average confidence with how often those fighters actually won.
- Simple baselines. The same graded fights are scored using Elo expected outcomes. The fixed 50/50 line is theoretical and does not claim an accuracy because it does not choose a side.
- Current model: v0.7-2026-08-28, trained on historical fights with point-in-time features only — no data from after each fight leaks in.