Prediction accuracy tracker
Every Combat Edge prediction is generated before fight night, frozen, and graded here once results land — hits and misses alike. The model is scored against an Elo-only baseline so you can see exactly what the extra matchup features add. Analytics, not betting advice.
Combat Edge model66%114 of 173 fights called correctlyBrier 0.210 · Log-loss 0.608 (lower is better)
Elo-only baseline65%112 of 173 fights called correctlyBrier score: 0.228 (lower is better)
By model version forward-only · frozen predictions
| Version | Graded | Accuracy | Log-loss | Brier | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v0.5-2026-07-01 | 139 | 65% | 0.613 | 0.213 | Jul 10, 2026 – Aug 15, 2026 |
| v3-2026-06-10 | 34 | 71% | 0.588 | 0.199 | Jun 20, 2026 – Jun 27, 2026 |
Recent results 173 graded fights
Jeremiah Wells vs Myktybek Orolbai✗Predicted Myktybek Orolbai at 76% · Winner: Jeremiah Wells · Aug 15, 2026Vicente Luque vs Tresean Gore✗Predicted Vicente Luque at 60% · Winner: Tresean Gore · Aug 15, 2026Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Dustin Stoltzfus✗Predicted Mansur Abdul-Malik at 86% · Winner: Dustin Stoltzfus · Aug 15, 2026Jalin Turner vs Kauê Fernandes✗Predicted Kauê Fernandes at 60% · Winner: Jalin Turner · Aug 15, 2026Neil Magny vs Ramiz Brahimaj✓Predicted Neil Magny at 55% · Winner: Neil Magny · Aug 15, 2026Edson Barboza vs Esteban Ribovics✓Predicted Esteban Ribovics at 77% · Winner: Esteban Ribovics · Aug 15, 2026Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson✗Predicted Gillian Robertson at 60% · Winner: Mackenzie Dern · Aug 15, 2026Donte Johnson vs Eric McConico✓Predicted Donte Johnson at 75% · Winner: Donte Johnson · Aug 15, 2026Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry✓Predicted Islam Makhachev at 50% · Winner: Islam Makhachev · Aug 15, 2026Chidi Njokuani vs Joel Alvarez✗Predicted Joel Alvarez at 66% · Winner: Chidi Njokuani · Aug 15, 2026Rafael Tobias vs Lucas Fernando✗Predicted Rafael Tobias at 50% · Winner: Lucas Fernando · Aug 15, 2026Charles Johnson vs Eduardo Henrique✓Predicted Charles Johnson at 60% · Winner: Charles Johnson · Aug 15, 2026Alikhan Vakhaev vs Amir Aliakbari✓Predicted Alikhan Vakhaev at 61% · Winner: Alikhan Vakhaev · Aug 15, 2026Enrique Barzola vs Saifullah Dzhabrailov✓Predicted Saifullah Dzhabrailov at 63% · Winner: Saifullah Dzhabrailov · Aug 15, 2026Erivan Pereira vs Artiom Damkovsky✓Predicted Erivan Pereira at 92% · Winner: Erivan Pereira · Aug 15, 2026 Pavel Gordeev vs Amirkhan Adaev✓Predicted Pavel Gordeev at 50% · Winner: Pavel Gordeev · Aug 15, 2026Vener Galiev vs Felipe Froes✗Predicted Felipe Froes at 63% · Winner: Vener Galiev · Aug 15, 2026Rasul Magomedov vs Sidney Outlaw✓Predicted Sidney Outlaw at 61% · Winner: Sidney Outlaw · Aug 15, 2026Alikhan Suleymanov vs Denis Silva✓Predicted Alikhan Suleymanov at 60% · Winner: Alikhan Suleymanov · Aug 15, 2026Mike Graves vs Vitaly Slipenko✗Predicted Mike Graves at 66% · Winner: Vitaly Slipenko · Aug 15, 2026Yusup-Khadzhi Zubariev vs Jora Ayvazyan✓Predicted Jora Ayvazyan at 67% · Winner: Jora Ayvazyan · Aug 15, 2026Faridun Odilov vs Altynbek Mamashov✓Predicted Faridun Odilov at 50% · Winner: Faridun Odilov · Aug 15, 2026Kafiz Sakibekov vs Viskhan Kadirov✓Predicted Viskhan Kadirov at 56% · Winner: Viskhan Kadirov · Aug 15, 2026Pavel Vitruk vs Mehroj Mamadshoev✓Predicted Mehroj Mamadshoev at 73% · Winner: Mehroj Mamadshoev · Aug 15, 2026Osimkhon Rakhmonov vs Tomáš Deák✓Predicted Osimkhon Rakhmonov at 53% · Winner: Osimkhon Rakhmonov · Aug 15, 2026Jon Kunneman vs Joseph Kropschot✗Predicted Jon Kunneman at 66% · Winner: Joseph Kropschot · Aug 11, 2026Bilal Hasan vs Mridul Saikia✓Predicted Bilal Hasan at 59% · Winner: Bilal Hasan · Aug 11, 2026Matt Adams vs Anthony Wint✓Predicted Anthony Wint at 60% · Winner: Anthony Wint · Aug 11, 2026Abe Alsaghir vs Fabrizio Escarrega✗Predicted Fabrizio Escarrega at 58% · Winner: Abe Alsaghir · Aug 11, 2026Ananias Mulumba vs Tom Pagliarulo✗Predicted Ananias Mulumba at 59% · Winner: Tom Pagliarulo · Aug 11, 2026Ty Miller vs Billy Ray Goff✓Predicted Ty Miller at 66% · Winner: Ty Miller · Aug 8, 2026Diyar Nurgozhay vs Bruno Lopes✓Predicted Diyar Nurgozhay at 66% · Winner: Diyar Nurgozhay · Aug 8, 2026Diego Ferreira vs Billy Quarantillo✓Predicted Diego Ferreira at 63% · Winner: Diego Ferreira · Aug 8, 2026Louie Sutherland vs José Montanha✗Predicted Louie Sutherland at 53% · Winner: José Montanha · Aug 8, 2026Steven Asplund vs Guilherme Pat✓Predicted Steven Asplund at 57% · Winner: Steven Asplund · Aug 8, 2026Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara✓Predicted Alexia Thainara at 87% · Winner: Alexia Thainara · Aug 8, 2026Mateusz Gamrot vs Quillan Salkilld✓Predicted Quillan Salkilld at 71% · Winner: Quillan Salkilld · Aug 8, 2026Gigi Canuto vs Carol Foro✗Predicted Gigi Canuto at 56% · Winner: Carol Foro · Aug 8, 2026Manoel Sousa vs Richie Miranda✓Predicted Manoel Sousa at 60% · Winner: Manoel Sousa · Aug 8, 2026Juliana Miller vs Ravena Oliveira✓Predicted Juliana Miller at 50% · Winner: Juliana Miller · Aug 8, 2026Darren Elkins vs Yadier del Valle✓Predicted Yadier del Valle at 73% · Winner: Yadier del Valle · Aug 8, 2026Josh Silveira vs Aaron Jeffery✗Predicted Josh Silveira at 55% · Winner: Aaron Jeffery · Aug 7, 2026Bryan Battle vs Dalton Rosta✓Predicted Bryan Battle at 60% · Winner: Bryan Battle · Aug 7, 2026Lewis McGrillen vs Brandon Lewis✓Predicted Lewis McGrillen at 73% · Winner: Lewis McGrillen · Aug 7, 2026Josh Fremd vs Jhony Gregory✓Predicted Josh Fremd at 54% · Winner: Josh Fremd · Aug 7, 2026Cheyden Leialoha vs Robbie Ring✗Predicted Robbie Ring at 52% · Winner: Cheyden Leialoha · Aug 7, 2026Cheyanne Bowers vs Elora Dana✓Predicted Cheyanne Bowers at 50% · Winner: Cheyanne Bowers · Aug 7, 2026Eduardo Neves vs Maxwell Djantou Nana✗Predicted Eduardo Neves at 56% · Winner: Maxwell Djantou Nana · Aug 7, 2026Trukon Carson vs Trey Waters✓Predicted Trey Waters at 60% · Winner: Trey Waters · Aug 7, 2026Denis Goltsov vs Hasan Mezhiev✓Predicted Denis Goltsov at 55% · Winner: Denis Goltsov · Aug 7, 2026
How grading works
- Frozen pre-fight. Predictions are written by an automated job while an event is upcoming and stop updating once it starts. Only predictions generated before the event date are graded — nothing is back-filled.
- Every bout counts. We grade every predicted bout with a recorded winner: favorites, underdogs, prelims. No cherry-picking.
- Accuracy is the share of fights where the fighter the model gave ≥50% actually won.
- Brier score measures calibration: the average squared gap between the predicted probability and the result (0 is perfect, 0.25 is coin-flip guessing).
- Elo-only baseline. The same fights scored using only Elo expected outcomes, so the model has a transparent bar to clear.
- Current model: v0.5-2026-07-01, trained on historical fights with point-in-time features only — no data from after each fight leaks in.