Prediction accuracy tracker
Every Combat Edge prediction is generated before fight night, frozen, and graded here once results land — hits and misses alike. The model is scored against an Elo-only baseline so you can see exactly what the extra matchup features add. Analytics, not betting advice.
Combat Edge model69%72 of 105 fights called correctlyBrier 0.192 · Log-loss 0.568 (lower is better)
Elo-only baseline69%72 of 105 fights called correctlyBrier score: 0.218 (lower is better)
By model version forward-only · frozen predictions
| Version | Graded | Accuracy | Log-loss | Brier | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v0.5-2026-07-01 | 71 | 68% | 0.559 | 0.189 | Jul 10, 2026 – Jul 31, 2026 |
| v3-2026-06-10 | 34 | 71% | 0.588 | 0.199 | Jun 20, 2026 – Jun 27, 2026 |
Recent results 105 graded fights
Usman Nurmagomedov vs Archie Colgan✓Predicted Usman Nurmagomedov at 73% · Winner: Usman Nurmagomedov · Jul 31, 2026Dakota Ditcheva vs Denise Kielholtz✓Predicted Dakota Ditcheva at 92% · Winner: Dakota Ditcheva · Jul 31, 2026Amru Magomedov vs Angel Alvarez✓Predicted Amru Magomedov at 76% · Winner: Amru Magomedov · Jul 31, 2026Raufeon Stots vs Lazaro Dayron✓Predicted Lazaro Dayron at 53% · Winner: Lazaro Dayron · Jul 31, 2026Sean Gauci vs Allan Begosso✓Predicted Sean Gauci at 64% · Winner: Sean Gauci · Jul 31, 2026Montana De La Rosa vs Tatiana Postarnakova✓Predicted Tatiana Postarnakova at 81% · Winner: Tatiana Postarnakova · Jul 31, 2026Moustapha Diakhaté vs Darryl Walker✓Predicted Moustapha Diakhaté at 61% · Winner: Moustapha Diakhaté · Jul 31, 2026Chamy Delva vs Levan Khabalaev✓Predicted Levan Khabalaev at 66% · Winner: Levan Khabalaev · Jul 31, 2026Jonathan Piersma vs Omar El Dafrawy✗Predicted Jonathan Piersma at 54% · Winner: Omar El Dafrawy · Jul 31, 2026Thad Jean vs Ernesto Rodriguez✓Predicted Thad Jean at 67% · Winner: Thad Jean · Jul 25, 2026Tyson Pedro vs Rafael Xavier✗Predicted Tyson Pedro at 60% · Winner: Rafael Xavier · Jul 25, 2026Noah Hermosillo vs Jacob Pais✗Predicted Jacob Pais at 60% · Winner: Noah Hermosillo · Jul 25, 2026Chad Yard vs Coby Bradford✓Predicted Coby Bradford at 60% · Winner: Coby Bradford · Jul 25, 2026Sullivan Cauley vs Rasul Magomedov✓Predicted Rasul Magomedov at 63% · Winner: Rasul Magomedov · Jul 25, 2026Eliezer Kubanza vs Chris Mixan✓Predicted Eliezer Kubanza at 50% · Winner: Eliezer Kubanza · Jul 25, 2026Bryce Meredith vs Michael Cyr✓Predicted Bryce Meredith at 50% · Winner: Bryce Meredith · Jul 25, 2026Nkosi Ndebele vs Brandon Davis✓Predicted Nkosi Ndebele at 73% · Winner: Nkosi Ndebele · Jul 25, 2026Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad Said✓Predicted Muhammad Said at 52% · Winner: Muhammad Said · Jul 25, 2026Abubakar Vagaev vs Saygid Izagakhmaev✗Predicted Saygid Izagakhmaev at 59% · Winner: Abubakar Vagaev · Jul 25, 2026Cody Gibson vs Abdul Hussein✓Predicted Abdul Hussein at 79% · Winner: Abdul Hussein · Jul 25, 2026Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Sam Patterson✓Predicted Sam Patterson at 73% · Winner: Sam Patterson · Jul 25, 2026Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskov✓Predicted Magomed Ankalaev at 70% · Winner: Magomed Ankalaev · Jul 25, 2026Nurullo Aliev vs Mike Davis✓Predicted Nurullo Aliev at 75% · Winner: Nurullo Aliev · Jul 25, 2026Magomed Zaynukov vs Damian Rzepecki✗Predicted Damian Rzepecki at 63% · Winner: Magomed Zaynukov · Jul 25, 2026Rizvan Kuniev vs Tyrell Fortune✗Predicted Tyrell Fortune at 59% · Winner: Rizvan Kuniev · Jul 25, 2026Valter Walker vs Thomas Petersen✓Predicted Valter Walker at 70% · Winner: Valter Walker · Jul 25, 2026Magomed Tuchalov vs Brendson Ribeiro✓Predicted Magomed Tuchalov at 80% · Winner: Magomed Tuchalov · Jul 25, 2026Steve Erceg vs Ramazan Temirov✗Predicted Steve Erceg at 66% · Winner: Ramazan Temirov · Jul 25, 2026Ismael Bonfim vs Axel Sola✓Predicted Axel Sola at 62% · Winner: Axel Sola · Jul 25, 2026Biaggio Ali Walsh vs Gamid Khizriev✗Predicted Biaggio Ali Walsh at 50% · Winner: Gamid Khizriev · Jul 18, 2026Caolán Loughran vs Julio Arce✗Predicted Caolán Loughran at 51% · Winner: Julio Arce · Jul 18, 2026Levi Rodrigues Jr. vs Felipe Franco✓Predicted Felipe Franco at 66% · Winner: Felipe Franco · Jul 18, 2026Chase Hooper vs Mitch Ramirez✓Predicted Chase Hooper at 84% · Winner: Chase Hooper · Jul 18, 2026Alden Coria vs Stewart Nicoll✓Predicted Alden Coria at 70% · Winner: Alden Coria · Jul 18, 2026Tabatha Ricci vs Fatima Kline✓Predicted Fatima Kline at 70% · Winner: Fatima Kline · Jul 18, 2026Tommy McMillen vs Alberto Montes✓Predicted Tommy McMillen at 63% · Winner: Tommy McMillen · Jul 18, 2026Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan✓Predicted Christian Leroy Duncan at 88% · Winner: Christian Leroy Duncan · Jul 18, 2026Dricus Du Plessis vs Kamaru Usman✓Predicted Dricus Du Plessis at 56% · Winner: Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 18, 2026Austin Bashi vs Jose Delgado✓Predicted Jose Delgado at 57% · Winner: Jose Delgado · Jul 18, 2026Jackson Glass vs Zak Flessas✓Predicted Jackson Glass at 72% · Winner: Jackson Glass · Jul 18, 2026Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Seok Hyeon Ko✓Predicted Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani at 50% · Winner: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani · Jul 18, 2026RJ Harris vs Alvin Hines✓Predicted RJ Harris at 63% · Winner: RJ Harris · Jul 18, 2026Anna Melisano vs Dione Barbosa✗Predicted Anna Melisano at 50% · Winner: Dione Barbosa · Jul 18, 2026Lewis McGrillen vs Rafael do Nascimento✗Predicted Lewis McGrillen at 69% · Winner: Rafael do Nascimento · Jul 18, 2026Mia Grawe vs Ashley Thiner✗Predicted Mia Grawe at 62% · Winner: Ashley Thiner · Jul 18, 2026Victoria Alba vs Borena Tsertsvadze✗Predicted Borena Tsertsvadze at 60% · Winner: Victoria Alba · Jul 18, 2026Jesus Pinedo vs Joey Ruquet✓Predicted Jesus Pinedo at 84% · Winner: Jesus Pinedo · Jul 18, 2026Ezra Elliott vs Damien Anderson✓Predicted Ezra Elliott at 60% · Winner: Ezra Elliott · Jul 18, 2026Andrea Vázquez vs Aleksandra Savicheva✗Predicted Andrea Vázquez at 50% · Winner: Aleksandra Savicheva · Jul 18, 2026Johnny Eblen vs Impa Kasanganay✓Predicted Johnny Eblen at 60% · Winner: Johnny Eblen · Jul 18, 2026
How grading works
- Frozen pre-fight. Predictions are written by an automated job while an event is upcoming and stop updating once it starts. Only predictions generated before the event date are graded — nothing is back-filled.
- Every bout counts. We grade every predicted bout with a recorded winner: favorites, underdogs, prelims. No cherry-picking.
- Accuracy is the share of fights where the fighter the model gave ≥50% actually won.
- Brier score measures calibration: the average squared gap between the predicted probability and the result (0 is perfect, 0.25 is coin-flip guessing).
- Elo-only baseline. The same fights scored using only Elo expected outcomes, so the model has a transparent bar to clear.
- Current model: v0.5-2026-07-01, trained on historical fights with point-in-time features only — no data from after each fight leaks in.