Combat Edge Model

UFC & MMA fight predictions

Win probabilities for every bout on upcoming UFC cards, computed from point-in-time Elo ratings, records, and matchup data. Every forecast is frozen before fight night and graded publicly on our accuracy tracker. Analytics, not betting advice.

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68Frozen bout forecasts

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SAMOURAI MMA 22 : BONIN VS AVELLAN

November 6, 2026 · 7 model forecasts · choose a matchup for the full evidence.

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Bantamweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Liam Macfadyen6-0-0

Nicolas Mandiola5-1-0

Close matchupModel + Elo agree

55%Liam Macfadyen45%Nicolas Mandiola

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 56% / 44%

Lightweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Mac Stroud1-0-0

Sami Elmasry0-0-0

Model leanModel + Elo agree

63%Mac Stroud37%Sami Elmasry

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 54% / 46%

Strawweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Jany St-Cyr2-0-0

Katherinne Machuca3-4-0

Model leanModel + Elo agree

66%Jany St-Cyr34%Katherinne Machuca

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 60% / 40%

Lightweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Cédrick Bégin0-1-0

Patricio Peñailillo0-1-0

Model leanModel / Elo split

55%Cédrick Bégin45%Patricio Peñailillo

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 49% / 51%

Bantamweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Isaac Herbert3-0-0

Jesus Gutierrez8-8-0

Model leanModel + Elo agree

58%Isaac Herbert42%Jesus Gutierrez

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 62% / 38%

Bantamweightv0.8-2026-10-04

Alain Majorique6-2-0

Fabrizio Pincheira5-1-0

Close matchupModel / Elo split

55%Alain Majorique45%Fabrizio Pincheira

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 49% / 51%

SMMA Vacant Featherweight Championshipv0.8-2026-10-04

Leo Bonin5-2-0

Camillo Avellan5-0-0

Close matchupModel / Elo split

53%Leo Bonin47%Camillo Avellan

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 46% / 54%

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UFC FIGHT NIGHT : BONFIM VS BRADYNovember 7, 2026 · 13 bouts

Gabriel Bonfim 57%43% Sean BradyElo alone: 50% / 50%Jonny Parsons 41%59% Jose Henrique SouzaElo alone: 55% / 45%Davey Grant 26%74% Elijah SmithElo alone: 43% / 57%José Delano 45%55% Murtazali MagomedovElo alone: 54% / 46%Gabriel Lourenço 79%21% Alvin HinesElo alone: 59% / 41%Mantas Kondratavičius 74%26% Andre PetroskiElo alone: 53% / 47%Seok Hyeon Ko 75%25% Wellington TurmanElo alone: 58% / 42%Keiichiro Nakamura 68%32% Ollie SchmidElo alone: 69% / 31%Priscila Cachoeira 18%82% Nina MiloševićElo alone: 32% / 68%Karine Silva 70%30% Gabriella FernandesElo alone: 57% / 43%Austin Bashi 77%23% Lucas BrennanElo alone: 59% / 41%Billy Elekana 32%68% Lucas FernandoElo alone: 46% / 54%Tatiana Suarez 70%30% Virna JandirobaElo alone: 49% / 51%

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PFL DUBAI : NEMKOV VS BILOSTENNIYNovember 14, 2026 · 14 bouts

Khabib Nabiev 43%57% Styve NgonoElo alone: 61% / 39%Denis Goltsov 60%40% Maxwell Djantou NanaElo alone: 69% / 31%Alexei Pergande 57%43% Akhmed MagomedovElo alone: 49% / 51%Aleksandra Savicheva 57%43% Jacinta AustinElo alone: 46% / 54%Vadim Nemkov 57%43% Sergey BilostenniyElo alone: 65% / 35%Pouya Rahmani 34%66% Oleg PopovElo alone: 32% / 68%Sergio Pettis 58%42% Joji GotoElo alone: 68% / 32%Ernesto Rodriguez 59%41% Rhys McKeeElo alone: 52% / 48%Lewis McGrillen 72%28% Nawras AbzakhElo alone: 57% / 43%Shaqueme Rock 48%52% Connor HughesElo alone: 51% / 49%Asaël Adjoudj 52%48% Movlid KhaybulaevElo alone: 31% / 69%Abubakar Nurmagomedov 31%69% David MartinezElo alone: 57% / 43%Patrick Habirora 57%43% Omar El DafrawyElo alone: 59% / 41%Khasan Magomedsharipov 58%42% Ádám BoricsElo alone: 47% / 53%

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UFC 334 : GANE VS HOKITNovember 14, 2026 · 12 bouts

Caio Borralho 63%37% Yousri BelgarouiElo alone: 68% / 32%Ciryl Gane 61%39% Josh HokitElo alone: 60% / 40%Donte Johnson 72%28% César AlmeidaElo alone: 61% / 39%Nazim Sadykhov 51%49% Jefferson NascimentoElo alone: 51% / 49%Adrian Yanez 37%63% Juan DíazElo alone: 46% / 54%Bia Mesquita 66%34% Macy ChiassonElo alone: 61% / 39%Jim Miller 36%64% Terrance McKinneyElo alone: 58% / 42%Drew Dober 33%67% Chris DuncanElo alone: 47% / 53%Stephen Thompson 47%53% Charles RadtkeElo alone: 57% / 43%Bilal Hasan 83%17% Luis GuruleElo alone: 61% / 39%Uros Medic 58%42% Kevin HollandElo alone: 49% / 51%Kayla Harrison 56%44% Amanda NunesElo alone: 48% / 52%

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ARES FC 45 : ZÉBO VS BAKI 2November 20, 2026 · 1 bouts

Jordan Zébo 56%44% Baysangur ChamsoudinovElo alone: 54% / 46%

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UFC FIGHT NIGHT : PROCHAZKA VS STIRLINGNovember 21, 2026 · 9 bouts

Asu Almabayev 61%39% Kyoji HoriguchiElo alone: 47% / 53%Amir Albazi 40%60% Alessandro CostaElo alone: 50% / 50%Aleksandre Topuria 24%76% Santiago LunaElo alone: 43% / 57%Jake Matthews 52%48% Tahir AbdullayevElo alone: 53% / 47%Shamil Gaziev 35%65% Tallison TeixeiraElo alone: 58% / 42%Jared Cannonier 22%78% Ikram AliskerovElo alone: 38% / 62%Dan Hooker 54%46% Brian OrtegaElo alone: 50% / 50%Aljamain Sterling 60%40% Kevin VallejosElo alone: 60% / 40%Jiří Procházka 33%67% Navajo StirlingElo alone: 56% / 44%

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KSW 123 : BARTOSINSKI VS LOPACZYKNovember 21, 2026 · 2 bouts

Valeriu Mircea 46%54% Marcin HeldElo alone: 48% / 52%Adrian Bartosiński 85%15% Tymoteusz ŁopaczykElo alone: 69% / 31%

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UFC 335 : OLIVEIRA VS LOPESDecember 12, 2026 · 5 bouts

Quentin Pasley 63%37% Junior TafaElo alone: 57% / 43%Charles Oliveira 42%58% Diego LopesElo alone: 55% / 45%Sergei Pavlovich 61%39% Alex PereiraElo alone: 53% / 47%Joe Pyfer 43%57% Bo NickalElo alone: 53% / 47%Brandon Moreno 64%36% Charles JohnsonElo alone: 57% / 43%

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PFL LYON : LAPILUS VS MCKEEDecember 19, 2026 · 5 bouts

Boris Atangana 46%54% Bryan BattleElo alone: 49% / 51%Taylor Lapilus 58%42% Mitchell McKeeElo alone: 55% / 45%Abdoul Abdouraguimov 80%20% Andreeas BinderElo alone: 65% / 35%Fabian Edwards 61%39% Ilian BouafiaElo alone: 61% / 39%Baris Adiguzel 57%43% Liam GittinsElo alone: 59% / 41%

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