Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexander O'Sullivan vs Marco Novák

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

5-1-0Record7-3-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'11"
-Reach-
145 lbsWeight146 lbs
C-MACTeamHanuman Gym Bratislava

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alexander O'SullivanNow 1580
If they win+24→ 1604
If they lose-24→ 1556
Marco NovákNow 1579
If they win+16→ 1595
If they lose-16→ 1563

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1504 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1520 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
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Strike accuracy
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
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Strike defense
TBD
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Takedown avg.
TBD
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Takedown accuracy
TBD
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Takedown defense
TBD
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Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Alexander O'SullivanMarco Novák
15501600202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (20%)
KO/TKO
2 (29%)
2 (40%)
Submission
2 (29%)
2 (40%)
Decision
3 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Alexander O'Sullivan and Marco Novák within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1580 vs 1579), separated by just 1 points.

Alexander O'Sullivan finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Marco Novák 57%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.