Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexander Treskin vs Zach Scroggin

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-3-0Record7-1-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'6"Height6'3"
-Reach74"
157 lbsWeight183 lbs
Raty TeamTeamMarathon MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alexander TreskinNow 1625
If they win+16→ 1641
If they lose-16→ 1609
Zach ScrogginNow 1623
If they win+24→ 1647
If they lose-24→ 1599

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1500 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1517 · 8 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.40
TBD
Strike accuracy
38%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
8.80
TBD
Strike defense
69%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
0%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Alexander TreskinZach Scroggin
150015501600165020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (55%)
KO/TKO
3 (43%)
1 (9%)
Submission
2 (29%)
4 (36%)
Decision
2 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

Alexander Treskin60%
Zach Scroggin 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Treskin a 60% favorite over Zach Scroggin in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1625 vs 1623), separated by just 2 points.

Alexander Treskin enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Alexander Treskin finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Zach Scroggin 71%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.