Combat Edge Intelligence

Aristides Vinícius vs Mads Burnell

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-3-1Record19-6-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'8"
68"Reach68.00"
146 lbsWeight155 lbs
CT Carrasco LimaTeamArte Suave Copenhagen

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Aristides ViníciusNow 1668
If they win+16→ 1684
If they lose-16→ 1652
Mads BurnellNow 1667
If they win+12→ 1679
If they lose-12→ 1655

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1515 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1617 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
1.28
TBD
Strike accuracy
42%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.71
TBD
Strike defense
51%
TBD
Takedown avg.
3.45
TBD
Takedown accuracy
47%
TBD
Takedown defense
22%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.38

Trajectory

Aristides ViníciusMads Burnell
165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (25%)
KO/TKO
1 (5%)
8 (67%)
Submission
9 (47%)
1 (8%)
Decision
9 (47%)

Combat Edge model read

Aristides Vinícius87%
Mads Burnell 13%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Aristides Vinícius a 87% favorite over Mads Burnell in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1668 vs 1667), separated by just 1 points.

Aristides Vinícius enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Aristides Vinícius finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Mads Burnell 53%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.